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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

However the current field is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent underperformers rising in unison. In an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still