Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
